Weather Research And Forecasting Research Articles

Machine learning parameterization of the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) convection scheme and stable simulation coupled in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF–ML v1.0

Abstract. Warm-sector heavy rainfall along the south China coast poses significant forecasting challenges due to its localized nature and prolonged duration. To improve the prediction of such high-impact weather events, high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to more accurately represent topographic effects. However, as these models' grid spacing approaches the scale of convective processes, they enter a “gray zone”, where the models struggle to fully resolve the turbulent eddies within the atmospheric boundary layer, necessitating partial parameterization. The appropriateness of applying convection parameterization (CP) schemes within this gray zone remains controversial. To address this, scale-aware CP schemes have been developed to improve the representation of convective transport. Among these, the multi-scale Kain–Fritsch (MSKF) scheme enhances the traditional Kain–Fritsch (KF) scheme, incorporating modifications that facilitate its effective application at spatial resolutions as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increase in the application of machine learning (ML) models across various domains of atmospheric sciences, including efforts to replace conventional physical parameterizations with ML models. This work introduces a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model intended to replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. This multi-output Bi-LSTM model is capable of simultaneously predicting the convection trigger while also modeling the associated convective tendencies and precipitation rates with a high performance. Data for training and testing the model are generated using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model over south China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, this work evaluates the performance of the WRF model coupled with the ML-based CP scheme against simulations with the traditional MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the promising potential of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Overestimated Fog-Top Entrainment in WRF Simulation Leading to Unrealistic Dissipation of Sea Fog: A Case Study

Entrainment at the top of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) is of significant importance because it controls the upward growth of the PBL height. An option called ysu_topdown_pblmix, which provides a parameterization of fog-top entrainment, has been proposed for valley fog modeling and introduced into the YSU (Yonsei University) PBL scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, enabling this option in simulations of sea fog over the Yellow Sea typically results in unrealistic dissipation near the fog bottom and even within the entire fog layer. In this study, we theoretically examine the composition of the option ysu_topdown_pblmix, and then argue that one term in this option might be redundant for sea-fog modeling. The fog-top variables are employed in this term to determine the basic entrainment in the dry PBL, which is already parameterized by the surface variables in the original YSU PBL scheme. This term likely leads to an overestimation of the fog-top entrainment rate, so we refer to it as redundant. To explore the connection between the redundant term and unrealistic dissipation, a widespread sea-fog episode over the Yellow Sea is employed as a case study based on the WRF model. The simulation results clearly attribute the unrealistic dissipation to the extra entrainment rate that the redundant term induces. Fog-top entrainment is unexpectedly overestimated due to this extra entrainment rate, resulting in a significantly drier and warmer bias within the interior of sea fog. When sea fog develops and reaches a temperature lower than the sea surface, the sea surface functions as a warming source to heat the fog bottom jointly with the downward heat flux brought by the fog-top entrainment, leading the dissipation to initially occur near the fog bottom and then gradually expand upwards. We suggest a straightforward method to modify the option ysu_topdown_pblmix for sea-fog modeling that eliminates the redundant term. The improvement effect of this method was supported by the results of sensitivity tests. However, more sea-fog cases are required to validate the modification method.

How frequent and which variables of automatic weather station data should be assimilated into WRF-3DVar model? A case study of a squall line event in Beijing

Accurate precipitation forecasting is one of the most challenging problems in mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The utilization of 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVar) Data Assimilation technique based on automatic weather station (AWS) data can significantly enhance the accuracy of precipitation simulations and forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. However, the impacts of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on the accuracy of precipitation forecasts remain unclear. This study comprehensively evaluated the impact of different assimilation frequencies and meteorological variables on precipitation forecasts, as illustrated by a case study of a squall line event on August 2, 2017, in Beijing. Eight experiments were conducted by assimilating different combinations of meteorological variables (air pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction) at various time intervals (1 h, 3 h, and 6 h). The results indicated that the WRF model roughly simulated the evolution of this event but overestimated the precipitation amount, accompanied by a large deviation in precipitation areas. Assimilating detailed AWS data significantly improves the model performance in precipitation forecasts. The experiment assimilating all variables at a 3 h interval yielded the most accurate forecasts, with the maximum threat score (TS) increasing from 0.02 to 0.56. Higher assimilation frequencies do not guarantee a better performance. In practice, a 3 h assimilation frequency emerges as an optimal choice for AWS data assimilation. The assimilation of various variables enhanced precipitation forecasts to varying degrees, with the optimum results achieved when all variables were assimilated. Wind speed and direction were the most significant factors in dynamically enhancing the simulation of precipitation areas. Relative humidity and temperature influenced the precipitation intensity by affecting the evolution of convective precipitation thermodynamically. The findings of this study can contribute to the development of AWS data assimilation strategies for the WRF-3DVar model, thereby enhancing the precipitation forecast accuracy.

Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain

Reanalysis-driven regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) Version 2.0 are assessed for capturing precipitation extreme indices. Seven configurations of the WRF model driven by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) for Australia from 1979 to 2020 at 20 km resolution are evaluated. We assess the spatiotemporal patterns of six selected Expert Team on Sector-Specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) precipitation extremes by comparing regional climate model (RCM) simulations against gridded observations. The RCMs evaluated have varying levels of accuracy in simulating precipitation extremes. While they capture climatology and coefficient of variation of precipitation extremes relatively well, temporal correlation and trend reproduction present challenges. Some RCMs perform more effectively for specific extreme indices, while others encounter challenges in accurately replicating them. No single RCM excels in all aspects, highlighting the need to consider specific strengths when selecting RCMs for global climate model (GCM) driven simulations.

Assimilation of GNSS tropospheric gradients into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.4.1

Abstract. In this study, we have incorporated tropospheric gradient observations from a Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) ground station network into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model through a newly developed observation operator. The experiments aim at testing the functionality of the developed observation operator and at analyzing the impact of tropospheric gradients on the sophisticated data assimilation (DA) system. The model was configured for a 0.1° mesh over Germany with 50 vertical levels up to 50 hPa. Our initial conditions were obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) data at 0.25° resolution, and conventional observations were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), restricted to mainly surface stations and radiosondes. We selected approximately 100 GNSS stations with high data quality and availability covering Germany. We performed DA every 6 h for June and July 2021. Four experiments were conducted: (1) a control run assimilating only conventional observations; (2) an impact run assimilating zenith total delays (ZTDs) on top of the control run; (3) an impact gradient run assimilating ZTDs and gradients on top of the control run; and (4) a gradient run assimilating only gradients on top of the control run. The error for the impact run was reduced by 32 % and 10 % for ZTDs and gradients, whereas the error for the impact gradient run was reduced by 35 % and 18 %, respectively. The gradient errors for the gradient run were nearly equal to those of the impact gradient. Overall, the newly developed operator for the WRFDA system works as intended. In particular, the combined assimilation of gradients and the ZTDs led to a notable improvement in the humidity field at altitudes above 2.5 km. With the operator codes developed and freely available to the WRF users, we aim to trigger further GNSS tropospheric gradient assimilation studies.

High resolution Tibetan Plateau regional reanalysis 1961-present

With the rapid global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has suffered severe impacts, such as glacier retreat, glacial lake expansion, and permafrost degradation, which threaten the lives and properties of the local and downstream populations. Regional Reanalysis (RR) is vital for TP due to the limitations of observations. In this work, a 62-year (1961–2022) long atmospheric regional reanalysis with spatial resolution of 9 km (convective gray-zone scale) and temporal resolution of 1 hour over the TP (TPRR) was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, combined with re-initialization method, spectral nudging (SN), and several optimizations. TPRR is forced by ERA5 at hourly intervals. TPRR outperforms ERA5, realistically capturing climatological characteristics and seasonal variations of precipitation and T2m (air temperature at 2m above ground level). Moreover, TPRR better reproduces the frequency and intensity of precipitation, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitation. This study also quantifies the wetting trend of 0.0071 mm/year over the TP amid global warming using TPRR.

Sensitivity of WRF-Simulated 2 m Temperature and Precipitation to Physics Options over the Loess Plateau

The current paper evaluates the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model sensitivity to five different combinations of cumulus, microphysics, radiation, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes over Loess Plateau for the period 2015, in terms of 2 m temperature and precipitation. The WRF configuration consists of a 10 km resolution domain nested in a coarser domain driven by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data. The model simulated 2 m temperature and precipitation have been evaluated at daily and monthly scales with gridded observational dataset. The analysis shows that all experiments reproduce well the daily 2 m temperature, with overestimation particularly in the low-temperature range. Precipitation is less well simulated, with underestimation in all range, especially for intense rainfall. Comparing with ERA-Interim, WRF shows no clear benefit in simulating daily 2 m temperature while prominent improvement in simulating daily precipitation. WRF simulations capture the annual cycle of monthly 2 m temperature and precipitation with a warm bias and wet bias for most experiments in summer. Some reasonable configurations are identified. The “best” configuration depends on the criteria.

Testing the Sensitivity of a WRF-based Great Lakes Regional Climate Model to Cumulus Parameterization and Spectral Nudging

Abstract The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically down-scale ERA-Interim global reanalysis data to test its performance as a regional climate model (RCM) for the Great Lakes Region (GLR). Four cumulus parameterizations and three spectral nudging techniques applied to moisture are evaluated based on 2 m temperature and precipitation accumulation in the Great Lakes Drainage Basin (GLDB). Results are compared to a control simulation without spectral nudging, and additional analysis is presented showing the contribution of each nudged variable to temperature, moisture, and precipitation. All but one of the RCM test simulations have a dry precipitation bias in the warm months, and the only simulation with a wet bias also has the least precipitation error. It is found that the inclusion of spectral nudging of temperature dramatically improves a cold-season cold bias, and while the nudging of moisture improves simulated annual and diurnal temperature ranges, its impact on precipitation is complicated.

Improving the atmospheric dispersion forecasts over Washington, D.C. using UrbanNet observations: A study with HYSPLIT model

UrbanNet data have been used to enhance the predictions of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model through observational nudging to improve temperature and wind predictions. HYSPLIT was utilized to understand the impact of using the observationally nudged WRF fields in dispersion modeling. The meteorological observations collected from the National Weather Service monitoring stations located at two major airports in Washington metropolitan area were also assimilated into WRF modeling. The results showed that observational nudging successfully adjusted WRF wind fields towards the observations and significantly reduced the forecast temperature bias at nighttime. The comparison of HYSPLIT simulations with and without the enhancement of the WRF model using UrbanNet and airport data showed significant differences in the pattern and direction of the dispersion plume especially during the early morning hours. Furthermore, ingesting the data from the closer airport to the downtown area in WRF provided HYSPLIT simulations very similar to the ones using UrbanNet data. This provides strong evidence that local data are essential to adjust weather prediction models routinely used to drive dispersion models. There was also evidence of increased mixing height when using local data collected in the downtown, mainly resulting from the increased surface heating in the city.

Study of boundary layer parameterization simulation uncertainties of sand-dust storm windfield using high-resolution three-dimensional Doppler wind lidar data

The processes of dust emission, the development, and dissipation of sand and dust storms all exhibit dynamic and rapidly changing characteristics, posing significant challenges for us to accurately represent their complex behaviors in numerical simulations. In the numerical weather prediction model, the selection and optimization of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes have a direct impact on the simulation results of PBL wind fields, primarily due to the significant uncertainty in the fine-grained simulation of PBL wind field structure. To gain a deeper understanding of the sources of uncertainty in simulating sand-dust storms through vertical wind field structure simulations of the PBL, this study utilizes high-resolution 3D Doppler wind lidar (DWL) data. Focusing on sand-dust storm wind fields with distinctive regional characteristics in Inner Mongolia, China, it examines the turbulent momentum equation and assumptions of the PBL. A comprehensive and systematic evaluation was conducted on the characteristics of horizontal and vertical wind fields, wind shear, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic differences that arise when simulating typical sand-dust storm wind fields using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with various PBL schemes. This evaluation focused on simulating the typical wind field of sand-dust storms during various stages, including dust generation, occurrence, development, and dissipation. The findings indicate that non-adiabatic heating plays a significant role in the sustainability and evolution of sand-dust storms. The wind shear index holds particular importance as it embodies the dynamic factor in the model. The PBL schemes such as Mellor-Yamada Nakanishi and Niino Level 2.5 (MYNN2), A new version of asymmetric convective model (ACM2), and Grenier-Bretherton-McCaa (GBM), which factor in buoyancy effects, demonstrate more accurate wind shear simulations in sand-dust storms. Furthermore, the ACM2 scheme effectively replicates the fundamental variation characteristics of meteorological elements throughout the sand-dust storm lifecycle.

Deep Learning of a 200-member Ensemble with a Limited Historical Training to Improve the Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract This study introduces a deep learning (DL) scheme to generate reliable and skillful probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) in a postprocessing framework. Enhanced machine learning model architecture and training mechanisms are proposed to improve reliability and skill of PQPFs while permitting computationally efficient model fitting using a short training dataset. The methodology is applied to postprocessing of 24h accumulated PQPFs from an ensemble forecast system recently introduced by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) and for lead times from one to six days. The ensemble system was designed based on a high-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, named West-WRF, to produce a 200-member ensemble in near real-time (NRT) over the Western U.S. during the boreal cool seasons to support forecastinformed reservoir operations (FIRO) and studies of prediction of heavy-to-extreme events. Postprocessed PQPFs are compared with those from the raw West-WRF ensemble, the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFSv12) as well as the ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As an additional baseline, we provide PQPFs verification metrics from a recently developed neural network postprocessing scheme proposed by Ghazvinian et al. (2022). Results demonstrate that skill of postprocessed forecasts significantly outperform PQPFs and deterministic forecasts from raw ensembles and the recently developed algorithm. The resulting PQPFs broadly improve upon the reliability and skill of baselines in predicting heavy to extreme precipitation (e.g., > 75 mm) across all lead times while maintaining the spatial structure of the high-resolution raw ensemble.

Modeling of air pollution due to marine traffic in Marseille

Marine traffic is constantly increasing and is unlikely to decrease in the years to come. However, merchant and tourist ships still use fuels with a high pollutant content, particularly in the Mediterranean sea where regulations are more flexible than those applied in northern European waters. The pollutants of interest in this work, which include particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5), NO2, SO2 and ozone, are responsible for respiratory diseases such as airway irritation, cardiopulmonary and lung cancers. The aim of this study is to estimate the impact of maritime traffic on air quality in Marseille in case of high port occupancy. The same ship traffic emission scenario will be studied under a series of typical meteorological conditions selected on the basis of a statistical seasonal analysis. This approach therefore differs from studies based on annualized ship traffic scenarios, which do not capture worst-case pollution. In order to do so, we have parameterized the numerical weather forecasting model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) that allows the inclusion of chemistry and atmospheric transport equations. The relative difference in concentration between a situation with and without ship traffic allows us to evaluate the influence of ships on air quality. The results show an average ship contribution of between 1.5% and 5.7% for PM2.5, with some local maximum of about 25% near the port. Contribution levels for gaseous species are much higher, with values reaching 40% for SO2 and 80% for NO2. The analysis of various meteorological conditions has highlighted a significant influence of wind speed and sea–land breeze dynamic on ship contribution.

Evaluation of a High Resolution WRF Model for Southeast Brazilian Coast: The Importance of Physical Parameterization to Wind Representation

This study assesses the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using a high-resolution spatial grid (1 km) with various combinations of physical parameterization packages to simulate a severe event in August 2021 in the southeastern Brazilian coast. After determining the optimal set of physical parameterizations for representing wind patterns during this event, a year-long evaluation was conducted, covering forecast horizons of 24, 48, and 72 h. The simulation results were compared with observational wind data from four weather stations. The findings highlight variations in the efficacy of different physical parameterization sets, with certain sets encountering challenges in accurately depicting the peak of the severe event. The most favorable results were achieved using a combination of Tiedtke (cumulus), Thompson (microphysics), TKE (boundary layer), Monin-Obukhov (surface layer), Unified-NOAH (land surface), and RRTMG (shortwave and longwave radiation). Over the one-year forecasting period, the WRF model effectively represented the overall wind pattern, including forecasts up to three days in advance (72-h forecast horizon). Generally, the statistical metrics indicate robust model performance, even for the 72-h forecast horizon, with correlation coefficients consistently exceeding 0.60 at all analyzed points. While the model proficiently captured wind distribution, it tended to overestimate northeast wind speed and gust intensities. Notably, forecast accuracy decreased as stations approached the ocean, exemplified by the ATPM station.

The 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23)

Abstract. This article introduces the 2023 National Offshore Wind data set (NOW-23), which offers the latest wind resource information for offshore regions in the United States. NOW-23 supersedes, for its offshore component, the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, which was published a decade ago and is currently a primary resource for wind resource assessments and grid integration studies in the contiguous United States. By incorporating advancements in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, NOW-23 delivers an updated and cutting-edge product to stakeholders. In this article, we present the new data set which underwent regional tuning and performance validation against available observations and has data available from 2000 through, depending on the region, 2019–2022. We also provide a summary of the uncertainty quantification in NOW-23, along with NOW-WAKES, a 1-year post-construction data set that quantifies expected offshore wake effects in the US Mid-Atlantic lease areas. Stakeholders can access the NOW-23 data set at https://doi.org/10.25984/1821404 (Bodini et al., 2020).

Evaluation and development of surface layer scheme representation of temperature inversions over boreal forests in Arctic wintertime conditions

Abstract. In this study, the Noah land surface model used in conjunction with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić surface layer scheme (hereafter, Noah-MYJ) and the Noah multiphysics scheme (Noah-MP) from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 4.5.1 mesoscale model are evaluated with regard to their performance in reproducing positive temperature gradients over forested areas in the Arctic winter. First, simplified versions of the WRF schemes, recoded in Python, are compared with conceptual models of the surface layer in order to gain insight into the dependence of the temperature gradient on the wind speed at the top of the surface layer. It is shown that the WRF schemes place strong limits on the turbulent collapse, leading to lower surface temperature gradient at low wind speeds than in the conceptual models. We implemented modifications to the WRF schemes to correct this effect. The original and modified versions of Noah-MYJ and Noah-MP are then evaluated compared to long-term measurements at the Ameriflux Poker Flat Research Range, a forest site in interior Alaska. Noah-MP is found to perform better than Noah-MYJ because the former is a two-layer model which explicitly takes into account the effect of the forest canopy. Indeed, a non-negligible temperature gradient is maintained below the canopy at high wind speeds, leading to overall larger gradients than in the absence of vegetation. Furthermore, the modified versions are found to perform better than the original versions of each scheme because they better reproduce strong temperature gradients at low wind speeds.

Evaluation of the fully coupled WRF and WRF-Hydro modelling system initiated with satellite-based soil moisture data

ABSTRACT This study comparatively evaluates the skill of the (un)coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) – WRF-Hydro system supported with satellite-based soil moisture initiation in long-term simulations of hydrometeorological variables under humid and semi-arid climate conditions. Prior to the coupling, the WRF-Hydro model is calibrated using streamflow data at different data scales (i.e. hourly and daily) to discuss the influences of the changing temporal resolution of the reference dataset on the optimum parameter values. According to the results, fully coupled models correct the location and magnitude of the occurrence of hourly extreme precipitation. Changing the initial soil moisture data source affects the terrestrial water cycle elements in the semi-arid region (i.e. Mediterranean (MED)) more than in the humid area (i.e. Eastern Black Sea (EBS)), especially in spring and summer. The initiation of the coupled model with satellite-based soil moisture improves the streamflow outputs after a reasonable spin-up period for the MED region.

TYPHOON KARDING (NORU) STORM SURGE ANALYSIS USING THE COAWST MODELING SYSTEM

Abstract. The Philippines, frequently affected by typhoons, faces the hazard of storm surges. This study examined the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System (COAWST) to simulate Typhoon Karding's September 2022 storm surge. COAWST integrates the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) coupled using the Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT). Four setups were analyzed: i. ROMS only, ii. ROMS-SWAN, iii. ROMS-WRF, and iv. ROMS-SWAN-WRF, focusing on four variables: a. Surface air pressure, b. Wind speed, c. Free-surface elevation, and d. Significant wave height. Results show that the ROMS-WRF and ROMS-SWAN-WRF setups accurately simulated Typhoon Karding's track with minimal positional error and wind speed. However, the models overestimated the typhoon's minimum air pressure with p-biases of 7.74% (i and ii), 4.1% (iii), and 3.9% (iv), and RMSE values of 68.529 hPa (i and ii), 36.744 hPa (iii), and 36.789 hPa (iv). Additionally, water levels were underestimated, with RMSE ranging from 0.31 to 0.35 meters and p-biases from −72.56% to −154.89% at Baler, Aurora validation point. At the Real, Quezon validation point, RMSE and p-bias ranged from 0.30 to 0.34 meters and −84.80% to −166.44%, respectively. Nonetheless, the models were able to simulate the storm surge and significant wave height at Baler and Real points similar to recorded data, with setup iv performing best in storm surge simulation. In summary, COAWST may be employed for typhoon simulations, with coupling being able to increase accuracy.

Investigation on the Sensitivity of Precipitation Simulation to Model Parameterization and Analysis Nudging over Hebei Province, China

The physical parameterizations have important influence on model performance in precipitation simulation and prediction; however, previous investigations are seldom conducted at very high resolution over Hebei Province, which is often influenced by extreme events such as droughts and floods. In this paper, the influence of parameterization schemes and analysis nudging on precipitation simulation is investigated using the WRF (weather research and forecasting) model with many sensitivity experiments at the cumulus “gray-zone” resolution (5 km). The model performance of different sensitivity simulations is determined by a comparison with the local high-quality observational data. The results indicate that the WRF model generally reproduces the distribution of precipitation well, and the model tends to underestimate precipitation compared with the station observations. The sensitivity simulation with the Tiedtke cumulus parameterization scheme combined with the Thompson microphysics scheme shows the best model performance, with the highest temporal correlation coefficient (0.45) and lowest root mean square error (0.34 mm/day). At the same time, analysis nudging, which incorporates observational information into simulation, can improve the model performance in precipitation simulation. Further analysis indicates that the negative bias in precipitation may be associated with the negative bias in relative humidity, which in turn is associated with the positive bias in temperature and wind speed. This study highlights the role of parameterization schemes and analysis nudging in precipitation simulation and provides a valuable reference for further investigations on precipitation forecasting applications.

Challenges of constructing and selecting the “perfect” boundary conditions for the large-eddy simulation model PALM

Abstract. We present the process of and difficulties in acquiring the proper boundary conditions (BCs) for the state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation (LES)-based PALM model system. We use the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a source of inputs for the PALM preprocessor and investigate the influence of the mesoscale model on the performance of the PALM model. A total of 16 different WRF configurations were used as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. We developed a technique for selecting suitable sets of BCs, performed PALM model simulations driven by these BCs, and investigated the consequences of selecting a sub-optimal WRF configuration. The procedure was tested for four episodes in different seasons of the year 2019, during which WRF and PALM outputs were evaluated against the atmospheric radiosounding observations. We show that the PALM model outputs are heavily dependent on the imposed BCs and have different responses at different times of the day and in different seasons. We demonstrate that the main driver of errors is the mesoscale model and that the PALM model is capable of attenuating but not fully correcting them. The PALM model attenuates the impact of errors in BCs in wind speed, while for the air temperature, PALM shows variable behavior with respect to driving conditions. This study stresses the importance of high-quality driving BCs and the complexity of the process of their construction and selection.

Modelling wind farm effects in HARMONIE–AROME (cycle 43.2.2) – Part 1: Implementation and evaluation

Abstract. With increasing number and proximity of wind farms, it becomes crucial to consider wind farm effects (WFEs) in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used to forecast power production. Furthermore, these WFEs are also expected to affect other weather-related parameters at least locally. Thus, we implement the explicit wake parameterization (EWP) in the NWP model HARMONIE–AROME (hereafter HARMONIE) along-side the existing wind farm parameterization (WFP) by Fitch et al. (2012) (FITCH). We evaluate and compare the two WFPs against research flight measurements as well as against similar simulations performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using case studies. The case studies include a case for WFEs above a wind farm as well as two cases for WFEs at hub height in the wake of farms. The results show that EWP and FITCH have been correctly implemented in HARMONIE. For the simulated cases, EWP underestimates the WFEs on wind speed and strongly underestimates the effect on turbulent kinetic energy (TKE). FITCH agrees better with the observations, and WFEs on TKE are particularly well captured by HARMONIE–FITCH. After this successful evaluation, simulations with all wind turbines in Europe will be performed with HARMONIE and presented in the second part of this paper series.